SpaceX Stock Gains 19% at IPO, Wolfe Research Sets $175 Target
SPCX•Wolfe Research set a $175 price target after SpaceX’s IPO stock closed 19% higher at nearly $161. Analysts expect 70% revenue growth and doubled EBITDA margins by 2030 from near-zero $3–5 million per-launch costs via fully reusable Starship and a break-even Starlink aiming for $90 billion EBITDA.
1. IPO Debut and Analyst Coverage
SpaceX’s stock began trading at its IPO and closed 19% higher at nearly $161 on its first day, leading Wolfe Research to initiate coverage with a $175 price target based on the company’s strong valuation potential.
2. Launch Cost Curve Breakthrough
SpaceX has driven per-launch costs down by combining Falcon 9’s first-stage reusability with Starship’s planned full reusability, reducing incremental launch costs from $14 million to an estimated $3–5 million, with fuel costs as low as $1 million per flight.
3. Growth and Margin Outlook
Analysts project 70% top-line growth and a near doubling of EBITDA margins by 2030, attributing the expansion to the company’s wide competitive moat from near-zero launch costs and its scalable launch infrastructure.
4. Starlink Profitability Trajectory
The Starlink broadband business reached positive EBITDA less capital expenditures in 2024 and is set to expand capacity twelve-fold, aiming for $90 billion in EBITDA and more than $70 billion in EBITDA less capex by 2030.
