SpaceX’s $2T AI Valuation Questioned Over $3.2B Revenue and Losses
SPCX•SpaceX’s synthetic stock launch offers retail exposure to its private $2 trillion valuation and AI-driven prospects despite its AI division generating only $3.2 billion in revenue at 22% growth and ongoing operating losses. By contrast, Nvidia’s AI business delivered 85% year-over-year growth with over $250 billion in annual revenue, underscoring more robust fundamentals relative to SpaceX’s sub-$20 billion total revenue and $6.6 billion adjusted EBITDA.
1. Launch of Synthetic Stock for SpaceX and AI Names
A new synthetic stock product allows investors to trade contracts tied to SpaceX’s private valuation alongside other leading AI firms, granting retail access to early-stage equity performance without public share listings.
2. Grantham Warns of AI Valuation Bubble
Jeremy Grantham cautioned that SpaceX’s prospectus projects 90% of future revenue from AI despite the division currently lagging competitors like Anthropic, running substantial losses and mirroring historical bubbles such as South Sea and railroad overcapacity crashes.
3. AI Business Comparison: SpaceX vs. Nvidia
SpaceX’s AI arm recorded $3.2 billion in revenue with 22% growth, contributing to under $20 billion in total revenue and $6.6 billion adjusted EBITDA for 2025, while Nvidia achieved 85% year-over-year AI growth, 96% projected quarterly growth, and over $250 billion in annual revenue, supporting its higher valuation multiple.
