The S&P 500 concluded 2025 with a year-end return of 17.1%, marking one of its strongest performances in recent history. The index reached multiple record highs over the course of the year, driven by robust earnings across technology, consumer discretionary and financial sectors. This result places 2025 as the fourth best full-year return during President Trump’s tenure when he has occupied the White House for the majority of the year.

In January 2025, Benzinga polled its readership on anticipated S&P 500 returns under a second Trump administration. Of respondents, 26% forecast gains above 16%, matching the actual outcome. The next largest group—also 26%—predicted an 11%–15% rise, slightly underestimating the final result. A combined 22% expected the index to decline, a call missed by the widest margin. Predictions for more modest gains between 6% and 10% captured 19% of votes, while 12% foresaw returns of 0%–5%.

The 17.1% increase in 2025 ranks alongside other notable annual returns during Trump’s presidency. In 2017, the S&P 500 gained 21.7%, while 2020 saw an 18.4% rise. By contrast, returns were negative in 2018 and suffered a downturn in 2022, when the index fell by 18.2%. The consistency of double-digit gains in four of five years under the same administration underscores the volatility and resilience of the broad equity market in this period.

With back-to-back records and four out of five years of positive performance under the current administration, investors will be closely watching macroeconomic signals as 2026 unfolds. Interest-rate policy, corporate earnings guidance and geopolitical developments will be key drivers of market momentum. Historical patterns suggest that sustaining returns above 20% may be challenging, but consensus estimates point to mid-teens growth scenarios, reflecting cautious optimism among strategists.