The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) recorded a robust 16.6% total return in 2025, extending its streak to three consecutive years of double-digit gains. During the year, SPY reached multiple all-time highs, reflecting broad market confidence and strong corporate earnings. Trading volume averaged over 100 million shares per day, underscoring sustained institutional and retail interest in the flagship U.S. large-cap benchmark.

The 16.6% gain for SPY in 2025 ranks as the fourth best performance in the five full years that Donald Trump has held the presidency. Under Trump’s prior terms, SPY returned 21.7% in 2017, 31.2% in 2019, 18.4% in 2020 and declined 4.6% in 2018. Compared with other years in the past decade, 2025’s return is the seventh best and marks the weakest of the last three annual returns above 16%.

Technology and consumer discretionary sectors were the primary drivers of SPY’s 2025 advance, contributing 7.2 and 4.1 percentage points respectively to the ETF’s total return. Semiconductor stocks alone added 3.8 points, reflecting record capital expenditures and robust chip demand. Health care and industrials also provided modest support, contributing 1.5 and 0.9 points respectively, as select pharmaceutical launches and infrastructure projects gained momentum.

Analysts surveyed by LSEG project SPY returns to moderate in 2026, forecasting an average gain of 8% based on consensus U.S. GDP growth of 2.1% and corporate earnings growth of 6.5%. Market strategists highlight the historical trend of the second year of a presidency producing lower relative returns, suggesting investors should monitor economic data releases and Federal Reserve policy for signs of inflation persistence or policy shifts that could influence SPY volatility.