Spotify Q3 EPS $3.83 Beats by $1.96, Analysts Cut Targets to $700-$800

SPOTSPOT

Spotify Technology reported Q3 EPS of $3.83 vs $1.87 est and revenue of $5.01B, exceeding analysts’ forecasts, with revenue up 7.1% year-over-year. Csenge Advisory Group increased its stake by 277.8% to 3,151 shares worth $2.2M, while UBS, Barclays and Benchmark trimmed price targets to $800, $700 and $760.

1. Subscription Price Increase Boosts Revenue Potential

In mid-January, Spotify announced a $1 monthly hike for its Individual Premium plan, raising the fee from $11.99 to $12.99. The changes extend to other tiers as well: Duo plans now cost $18.99, Family plans $21.99 and Student plans $6.99. This marks the first price adjustment since June 2024 and is expected to lift average revenue per user by approximately 8% in the U.S. market, where premium subscribers account for over 70% of the company’s monthly active users. Management cited elevated content licensing costs and continued investment in podcasting and personalized discovery tools as drivers of the increase.

2. Institutional Investors Ramp Up Positions

During the third quarter, Csenge Advisory Group boosted its holding in Spotify by 277.8%, adding 2,317 shares to reach a total of 3,151. As of the most recent SEC filing, this position was valued at $2.20 million. Other institutional moves included Knuff & Co LLC’s entry with a $27,000 stake and Sound Income Strategies LLC’s 156.3% increase to 41 shares. Institutional investors now control over 84% of outstanding shares, underlining confidence in the company’s long-term growth strategy centered on ad-supported audio and expanding podcast ad revenues.

3. Strong Q3 Earnings Spark Analyst Optimism

In early November, Spotify posted third-quarter revenue of $5.01 billion, a 7.1% year-over-year rise, driven by a 9% increase in premium subscribers and a 16% surge in ad-supported listening hours. Adjusted EPS of $3.83 handily beat consensus estimates by $1.96, reflecting improved operational leverage and higher-margin podcast content. Net margin expanded to 8.46% and return on equity reached 21.7%. Analysts now forecast full-year adjusted EPS of 10.3, with several brokerages maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings based on the company’s ability to monetize both music and spoken-word offerings.

Sources

MDI