Spotify Tops Q3 Estimates with $3.83 EPS and $5.01B Revenue

SPOTSPOT

Spotify reported Q3 EPS of $3.83 versus $1.87 expected, and revenue of $5.01B versus $4.23B consensus, marking a 7.1% YoY revenue increase. Citigroup lifted its price target from $715 to $750 while Cantor Fitzgerald raised theirs from $640 to $675.

1. Analysts See 32.1% Upside Potential

Wall Street analysts’ consensus price target for Spotify implies a 32.1% upside, reflecting an average target of $760.23 based on 34 published estimates. While empirical studies question the predictive power of consensus targets, Spotify has recently benefited from four consecutive positive earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that near-term fundamentals could support further share gains. With two analysts maintaining strong buy ratings and 23 issuing buy ratings, the stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, indicating broad confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.

2. Institutional Holders Adjust Stakes in Q3

Abacus FCF Advisors reduced its Spotify position by 11.5% during the third quarter, selling 3,468 shares to hold 26,735 shares valued at $18.66 million, making Spotify its tenth largest position at 2.5% of total assets. Other funds also tweaked their holdings: Simplify Asset Management established a new $574,000 stake; Albion Financial Group boosted its position by 80% to 45 shares; Annex Advisory Services increased its stake by 7.8% to 58,186 shares worth $40.61 million; FFG Partners grew its holding by 7.4% to 16,445 shares valued at $11.48 million; and Ethic Inc. added 3.1% to reach 22,508 shares worth $15.71 million. Institutional ownership stands at 84.09%.

3. Q3 Earnings Showcase Accelerating Profitability

In its latest quarterly report, Spotify posted earnings per share of $3.83, outperforming consensus estimates by $1.96, and delivered $5.01 billion in revenue, 18.5% above forecasts. Year-over-year revenue rose 7.1%, while net margin expanded to 8.46% and return on equity reached 21.68%. Management reiterated guidance for full-year adjusted EPS of approximately 10.3, underlining strong monetization momentum in both its ad-supported and premium segments as podcast and audiobooks revenues continue to gain traction.

Sources

DZ