STAG Industrial is projected to deliver approximately 9% annual growth in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share, driven by multiple internal and external growth levers. Same-store net operating income (NOI) growth of 3.5% in 2026 is expected to add roughly $22 million in annual NOI (approximately $0.12 per share). Mark-to-market lease roll-ups remain powerful: new leases signed in 2025 carry average cash spreads of 18%–20% over expiring rents, and STAG reported GAAP leasing spreads of 38.1% through December 2, 2025. The company’s long lease durations mean legacy contracts continue to reset toward higher market rates, underpinning organic growth even as market asking rents level off.

After a subdued 2025 acquisition year ($350–$500 million), STAG’s pipeline for 2026 is expected to return to its five-year average of about $700 million in asset purchases. Rising cap rates—now in the mid-6% range versus STAG’s cost of capital of roughly 5.86% for equity and 5.65% for debt—are unlocking immediately accretive opportunities. At a conservative 6.5% going-in cap rate, STAG captures a 75 basis-point spread on acquisitions, contributing an estimated $11 million (about $0.06 per share) to annual AFFO accretion, with additional upside from built-in rent escalators on fresh assets.

STAG maintains a robust development pipeline totaling $158 million of in-progress projects due for delivery by early 2026. The REIT targets 7% stabilized yields on its new builds, though recent completions—such as the fully leased Nashville facility—have achieved 9.3% cash yields, 210 basis points above underwriting, and stabilized six months ahead of schedule. Applying a 125 basis-point spread to the $158 million pipeline yields approximately $2 million in annual AFFO accretion (roughly $0.01 per share), further boosting total run-rate growth to about $0.19 per share.

STAG shares trade at 17 times forward AFFO—below both the sector average and the company’s own target multiple of 20 times—while offering a recently raised 4.0% dividend yield. Consensus net asset value stands at $44.24 per share, implying significant upside to current levels. The balance sheet remains conservative with a 5.0x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio and an investment-grade credit rating, supporting continued capital deployment. Key factors to monitor include national vacancy trends (at just over 7%), evolving e-commerce penetration, and corporate inventory levels, which together will influence leasing demand and future growth trajectories.