Steelmaker Ternium bets on Mexico lifting outlook as US tariff relief remains uncertain
TX•Ternium expects stronger Mexican demand, firm prices and market-share gains to drive growth into early 2027, despite uncertainty over US steel tariff relief. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 10% from the prior quarter to $785 million, and the company expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to remain broadly in line.
1. Mexico expected to drive growth
Ternium expects Mexico to drive growth into early 2027 through stronger demand, firm prices and continued market-share gains from imports. CEO Maximo Vedoya said demand was beginning to improve, supported by infrastructure work, data centers and gas pipeline projects, with volumes expected to grow through the first quarter of 2027.
2. Tariff relief remains uncertain
Vedoya said Ternium was not betting on relief from US tariffs on steel, aluminum and derivatives. “We do not see yet any demand coming from a USMCA solution,” he said, adding that an agreement would likely narrow the gap between Mexican and US steel prices rather than materially change US prices.
3. Results and Brazil outlook
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $785 million, up 10% from the prior quarter. Ternium said fourth-quarter EBITDA should remain broadly in line, as stronger margins offset seasonal weakness. In Brazil, imports continued to pressure the market despite anti-dumping measures against China. Vedoya said Ternium had “no path” to buy more Usiminas shares outright because of pending legal issues and uncertainty over Brazil’s outlook.
