Street view: AmEx piles into growth, but rewards costs loom large
AXP•American Express raised its 2026 profit forecast above Wall Street expectations and plans to cut 5% of its global workforce, about 3,500 jobs, in a restructuring. Analysts cited potential efficiency gains alongside concerns that higher rewards and customer engagement costs could weigh on 2027 earnings.
1. Analysts weigh costs and growth
Piper Sandler said the planned workforce reduction could improve efficiency but called the lack of detail on recurring savings and reinvestment a reason not to treat it as a meaningful earnings driver yet. Morgan Stanley said reinvestment in long-term growth was encouraging, while higher rewards and customer engagement costs could create modest downside risk to 2027 earnings.
2. Views on revenue and outlook
BofA Global Research said card fee revenue was picking up even as consumer spending growth was expected to slow, leaving the company in a stronger position ahead of tougher 2027 billing comparisons. RBC Capital Markets maintained its positive view of American Express, citing its earnings and credit-quality outlook despite concerns about billing growth. The median price target from 32 brokerages was $367.
