Street view: Analysts see refining windfall boosting ExxonMobil's Q3 results
XOM•ExxonMobil said higher third-quarter refining margins could boost downstream profit by $4.5 billion quarter over quarter. Analysts cited stronger energy products margins, while the median price target was $180 and 10 of 27 brokerages rated the stock Buy or higher.
1. Margins lift expectations
ExxonMobil signaled that higher third-quarter refining margins could boost downstream profit by $4.5 billion quarter over quarter. UBS sees record third-quarter earnings at the U.S. energy products business, while Piper Sandler said stronger refining margins should support results despite lower liquids realizations, Guyana entitlement impacts and weaker chemicals margins.
2. Analyst targets
JPMorgan raised its price target to $186 from $166, and Jefferies raised its target to $206 from $200. Piper Sandler maintained its $185 target. Ten of 27 brokerages rated ExxonMobil Buy or higher, while 17 rated it Hold; the median price target was $180. JPMorgan expects management commentary on the earnings call to be cautious about 2027, particularly capital allocation and shareholder returns.
