Super Micro’s Q1 Revenue Drops 15% to $5B; Goldman Sachs Issues $26 PT

SMCISMCI

Super Micro Computer’s Q1 sales fell 15% year-over-year to $5 billion, missing its $6–7 billion guidance and consensus estimates by 17.5%, while gross margins compressed to 9.3% from 13.1% a year earlier. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Sell rating and $26 price target, citing margin dilution and execution risks.

1. Fiscal Q1 Shortfall and Revised Outlook

Super Micro Computer reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $5.02 billion, falling 17.5% short of consensus projections and missing its own guidance range of $6 billion to $7 billion. Gross margin contracted to 9.3%, down from 13.1% a year earlier, and management warned of another 300 basis-point decline in Q2 as production ramps for the GB300 Blackwell platforms. Despite these misses, the company raised its full-year revenue target to at least $36 billion, citing an expected pickup in AI workload demand during the back half of the fiscal year.

2. Leadership in AI Infrastructure and Backlog Strength

Supermicro’s modular server architecture and partnerships with Nvidia have driven AI-optimized GPU systems to represent over 75% of Q1 revenue. The company’s time-to-online offerings, including liquid-cooled rack designs and its DCBBS high-density systems, have attracted hyperscale customers and enterprises seeking rapid deployment. Order backlog exceeded $13 billion at quarter end, reflecting strong demand for next-generation GPU solutions that support both training and inference workloads.

3. Competitive Pressures and Execution Risks

Competition from Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise has intensified pricing pressure, limiting Supermicro’s margin recovery prospects. Analysts project full-year gross margin of just 7.5%, compared with over 15% in 2022, as input costs rise and GPU shortages persist. Last week, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a one-year target implying further downside based on restricted profitability visibility and potential supply-chain disruptions. Two consecutive quarters of revenue and earnings misses have undermined investor confidence, with shares off nearly 40% over the past three months.

Sources

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