Surge in 2028 US presidential bets reframes markets after midterms
SPY•Prediction markets showed Senator Jon Ossoff at 18% to win the 2028 US presidential election, five percentage points higher and three points ahead of Vice President JD Vance. The shift followed Democrats’ sweeping midterm gains and could influence how investors assess policy risks.
1. Ossoff moves ahead
Prediction markets showed Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as the favourite to win the presidency in 2028, the first time Vice President JD Vance was not the clear frontrunner. As trading unfolded Wednesday, Ossoff was at 18%, up five percentage points and three points ahead of Vance. Neither is an official candidate, and Ossoff has repeatedly denied wanting to run.
2. Policy risks in focus
The shift followed Democrats’ capture of both houses of Congress and may lead investors to pay closer attention to the party’s positions on issues including AI regulation, cryptocurrency, defence spending, immigration, healthcare, trade and foreign policy. Strategists said the prospect of a Democratic win could make the party’s regulatory and corporate-tax agenda a risk for earnings and growth. Vance called the Iran war “the reason we lost”; oil prices fell on speculation of a US policy shift.
