Survey Shows Investors Expect US Dollar Weakness Despite Short Covering
Bank of America surveyed 30 global fund managers with $341 billion in assets and found they covered US dollar shorts after the Iran conflict but expect the currency to weaken long-term. More than half cited loose monetary policy and central bank independence threats as key drivers of further dollar decline.
1. Survey Methodology
Bank of America conducted the survey between April 3–9, polling 30 global fund managers overseeing $341 billion in assets to gauge currency positioning and risk outlooks.
2. Dollar Outlook
Managers rushed to cover US dollar shorts following the Iran conflict outbreak but remain unconvinced of sustained strength, with most expecting the currency to weaken as growth concerns outweigh inflation pressures and a dovish Federal Reserve appears more likely.
3. Market Trade Convictions
Respondents identified bets on falling long-term yields at the short end of yield curves as the highest-conviction trade for 2026, while forecasts call for oil to stabilize at $90–$99 per barrel and gold to rebound toward $5,000–$5,500.