Canada’s 100% EV Tariff Lift and Third Graphite Extension Ahead of Tesla’s Jan 28 Q4 Report

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Canada's removal of 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs positions Tesla to leverage its Shanghai plant shipments and established Canadian network, and Syrah Resources extended for the third time a deadline to resolve a graphite supply breach. Tesla will report Q4 earnings on Jan 28 after delivering 418,000 vehicles in the quarter (-16% YoY) and 1.64 million in 2025 (-9% YoY), with analysts forecasting EPS of $0.45 (-38% YoY) and revenue of $24.76 billion (-4% YoY) as investors await Musk’s robotaxi and humanoid robot commentary.

1. Tesla Set to Capitalize on Canada’s EV Tariff Removal

Canada’s decision to eliminate the 100% import duty on electric vehicles manufactured in China presents a significant opportunity for Tesla. Having shipped an initial batch of Model 3 and Model Y sedans from its Shanghai Gigafactory as early as 2023, Tesla already benefits from established logistics channels into Canada. With over 70 retail locations and service centers nationwide—more than any other EV maker—Tesla is uniquely positioned to capture incremental market share when the tariff change takes effect this spring. Industry analysts estimate that tariff savings of roughly C$10,000 per vehicle could translate into a 15% boost in sales volume for Tesla’s China-built models in Canada by year-end.

2. Graphite Supply Deal with Syrah Resources Extended Again

Australia’s Syrah Resources announced on Monday that it and Tesla have agreed to extend for the third time the deadline for resolving a dispute under their graphite supply agreement. The original contract, inked in 2022, calls for Syrah to provide up to 50,000 tonnes of spherical graphite annually for Tesla’s battery anode production. Delays stem from qualification testing at Tesla’s battery plants in Nevada and Berlin, where engineers have been working to optimize purity levels. The new extension pushes resolution into Q2 2026, ensuring Tesla’s raw-material pipeline remains intact while both parties finalize technical requirements and pricing terms tied to future lithium-ion capacity expansions.

3. Q4 2025 Earnings Preview Focuses on Softening Deliveries and Robotaxi Outlook

Tesla will report fourth-quarter results on January 28, following a 16% year-over-year slide in Q4 vehicle deliveries (over 418,000 units) and a 9% decline in full-year deliveries (1.64 million units). Wall Street consensus forecasts call for earnings per share of $0.45 (down 38% year-on-year) and revenues of $24.76 billion (down 4% year-on-year). Investors will monitor CEO commentary on the rollout of the robotaxi network—expected to expand into at least five new U.S. cities in 2026—and updates on the Optimus humanoid robot program. While some analysts warn that current valuation multiples already reflect flawless execution, others see material upside if Tesla can articulate a clear path to positive cash flow from autonomous operations.

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