TSMC Raises Capex, Sees 25%–30% CAGR and 60% AI Revenue by 2029

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TSMC projects a 25%–30% companywide CAGR through 2029, with AI chip revenue expected to grow mid-to-high 50% annually and account for 60% of total sales by 2029. Management has raised its five-year growth outlook, plans significant capex increases, and trades at about 24x forward earnings versus peers at 38x.

1. Robust AI Infrastructure Growth

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is positioned to capitalize on the global AI infrastructure build-out, with management projecting a 25% companywide compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2029. Analysts expect overall revenue growth of approximately 30% in 2026, driven by a mid-to-high-50% CAGR in AI chip revenue over the same period. TSM’s advanced process nodes, including 3nm and 2nm, are set to power next-generation GPUs and custom AI accelerators, underpinning the firm’s continued outperformance in data center spending cycles.

2. Dominant Foundry Market Share

TSM controls roughly 72% of the global contract semiconductor manufacturing market, a near-monopoly at the leading edge. Key client relationships span major cloud providers and hyperscale AI vendors, with TSM supplying chips for GPU, ASIC and AI accelerator designs. The company’s extensive capacity expansion plans include raising capital expenditure by over 20% year-on-year in 2026 to secure additional wafer starts, ensuring it can absorb surging demand while competitors face wafer shortages and longer lead times.

3. Attractive Valuation and Financial Outlook

Despite its market leadership and growth trajectory, TSM trades at approximately 24x forward earnings, significantly below the 38x multiple seen at peers focused solely on AI chips. Its price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio sits around 0.7, suggesting that the current valuation underprices the company’s mid-20% growth outlook. Free cash flow margins have held above 40% in recent quarters, supporting dividend increases and share-buyback programs that returned over $15 billion to shareholders in the past twelve months.

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