Take Five: Bangkok blues
SPY•The IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, U.S. inflation data, Chinese economic figures, major U.S. bank earnings and turbulent bond markets set up a packed week for investors.
1. Global policy focus
The IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok will focus on growth, debt and geopolitics. The IMF is due to update its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday after cutting its global growth forecast twice this year; energy costs, public debt and bond markets are among the concerns.
2. Inflation and bank earnings
U.S. September consumer price data are due Wednesday, with a monthly 0.6% rise forecast for headline CPI and a 0.2% increase for core CPI. Four major U.S. banks—JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo—report Tuesday, followed Wednesday by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Earnings are expected to rise by as much as 20% from a year earlier.
3. China and bond markets
China's September exports are forecast to rise 25.3% year on year, while imports are projected to grow 23.5%. U.S. and French bond yields have reached 24-year highs, and the French-German 10-year yield spread is around 136 basis points, compared with less than 100 a month earlier.
