Take Five: Midterms meet earnings
SPY•U.S. midterm elections, payrolls data, major technology earnings and central bank decisions are set to test investors in the coming week. Apple headlines the earnings calendar as markets assess whether AI enthusiasm is fading.
1. Politics and payrolls
Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections will determine whether Democrats can take control of Congress. Democrats are widely expected to win the House, while Senate control is less certain; investors are watching possible effects on AI regulation, fiscal spending and scrutiny of banks and crypto firms. Friday’s October payrolls report follows September’s 29,000 job gain, below expectations. Unemployment was 4.2% last month, and markets price about an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
2. Technology earnings
Apple leads the week’s earnings calendar, alongside companies in the AI sector. Reports from Qualcomm and Advanced Micro Devices could reinforce or challenge concerns about waning investor enthusiasm for AI, following disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel that triggered sharp share-price declines.
3. Central banks and emerging markets
The Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Bank of England and Norges Bank are scheduled to make policy decisions. Markets expect the RBA, Riksbank and BoE to raise rates. Brazil’s central bank will decide policy amid political uncertainty, with rates at 13.75%; investors are also watching for the finance minister appointment. Indonesia’s third-quarter GDP data is due Thursday as the rupiah nears record lows.
