Take Five: Rates, risks and rivalries

The Bank of Japan may be the easiest central bank call of the month. Markets are all but certain policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, a level not seen in more than three decades.

The bigger question is what comes next. After plenty of jawboning by BOJ officials about the need for policy tightening, investors are already looking beyond September. Analysts see the BOJ's October and December meetings as live, while swaps fully price in rates reaching 1.5% by January.

The X factor is the yen. Propping up the currency became a de facto aim of the BOJ as the yen slumped, reaching a four-decade low in July. A recent rebound has eased that pressure, though investors remain sensitive to any renewed unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, which have rattled assets far beyond Japan's shores.