Take Five: Six months of war

The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and crude prices grinding higher are adding to concerns about the global inflation outlook. Brent LCOc1 is headed for a second straight weekly gain and its sixth advance in eight weeks, but it's the surge in refined products that is drawing growing attention as the Northern Hemisphere heads towards the colder months. European diesel prices LGOc1 have jumped more than 70% since the outbreak of war in February; U.S. gasoline RBc1 is up 60%. With refining output curtailed in the Middle East, Russia, East Asia and beyond, energy-driven inflation looks here to stay. A clearer picture of global inflation is due in the coming days, with data from Australia on Wednesday, and France, Spain and Tokyo on Friday. Particular focus will fall on the U.S. core PCE reading on Wednesday - expected to print above the Fed's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Icelanders head to the polls on Aug. 29 in a referendum on whether to thaw out EU accession talks that have been on ice since 2013, when a eurosceptic government put them in the chiller. It's not a vote on joining the bloc itself. Any eventual deal would still need a second referendum. For now, polls suggest the country is split right down the middle. At stake are Iceland's rich natural resources, sky-high interest rates, a punishing cost of living costs and, increasingly, security concerns stirred by U.S. interest in neighbouring Greenland. A "yes" vote would reopen thorny talks with Brussels, with fisheries likely the biggest obstacle. A "no" sends the EU question back into the deep freeze and dents the bloc's enlargement pitch. Aug. 21 (Reuters) - The world's top central bank chiefs gather in Jackson Hole next week against a jittery backdrop, half a year into the Iran war and with bond markets rattled by a selloff in long-dated U.S. debt that prompted U.S. Treasury intervention. Away from Wyoming, there's plenty else going on, from inflation readings around the world and Nvidia's earnings to a South Korean rate decision and an Icelandic vote on whether to revive EU accession talks. Here's all you need to know about the week ahead in financial markets, by Howard Schneider in Washington, Laura Matthews in New York, Stine Jacobsen in Copenhagen, Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore and Samuel Indyk in London. After a rocky few days for tech stocks, investors will get a fresh read on the artificial intelligence spending boom that has helped propel markets to record highs when Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday. The chipmaker, whose processors are central to AI development, is widely viewed as a barometer for both AI investment and broader tech sentiment. Its results could help determine whether enthusiasm for AI remains strong enough to support lofty valuations, after a recent tech selloff driven in part by rising bond yields. Investors will focus on demand from major cloud providers, whose spending has fuelled Nvidia’s rapid growth. Signs that customers are ramping up AI deployments or spending plans could reinforce expectations that the investment cycle still has room to run. South Korea's central bank meets on Thursday with markets watching for signs that policymakers are ready to follow up July's first rate hike in 3-1/2 years. Inflation cooled to an annualised 2.8% that month, but still remains above target as demand for AI-related chips continues to support the economy. Higher borrowing costs could add to pressure on South Korean stocks, still recovering from June's leverage-fuelled selloff, while also boosting the won KRW=, which has strengthened more than 10% this month. Governor Shin Hyun Song has signalled a preference for keeping policy tight to contain inflation, suggesting another hike cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, Thailand's central bank meets on Wednesday, but with inflation far more subdued, few expect rates to move again this year.

Take Five: Six months of war

Inflation watch

Testing EU waters again in Iceland

Central bankers head to Jackson Hole

Chip check and South Korea's rate decision

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