Target Beats Q3 EPS by $0.07 While Revenue Declines 1.6%
Target’s Q3 EPS of $1.78 beat estimates by $0.07 on $25.27B revenue, though revenue was down 1.6% year-over-year and comparable-store sales fell 4.2% through nine months. Analysts maintain a consensus Hold rating with 4 sells, 22 holds and 10 buys, and an average one-year price target of $102.62.
1. Analyst Consensus and Rating Trends
Thirty-six research firms currently cover Target, issuing an average recommendation of “Hold.” Within this group, four analysts rate the stock as “Sell,” twenty-two as “Hold,” and ten as “Buy.” Over the past year, brokers’ one-year price targets have ranged with an average target of approximately 102.62. Notable revisions include Argus lowering its target from 135 to 125 while maintaining a “Buy” rating, Truist Financial raising its target from 83 to 90 with a “Hold” rating, and JPMorgan reducing its target from 117 to 100 alongside a “Neutral” stance. Wolfe Research initiated coverage in September with an “Underperform” rating and an 80 target.
2. Latest Quarterly Results and Forward Guidance
In its most recent quarter, Target reported earnings per share of 1.78, beating consensus estimates of 1.71 by seven cents. Quarterly revenue of 25.27 billion narrowly missed the 25.44 billion consensus, marking a 1.6% decline year-over-year. The company delivered a net margin of 3.58% and returned 22.74% on equity. Comparable-store sales decreased 4.2% through the first nine months of the fiscal year. Management set full-year guidance at 7.00–8.00 EPS, while sell-side analysts project 8.69 EPS for the upcoming year.
3. Institutional Ownership and Hedge Fund Activity
Institutional and hedge fund ownership stands at 79.73% of outstanding shares. Recent filings show WFA of San Diego LLC initiating a new position valued at roughly 25,000, and Heartwood Wealth Advisors LLC establishing a 27,000 stake in the third quarter. Raleigh Capital Management increased its holding by 63.4% to 263 shares during the second quarter, and Kozak & Associates boosted its position by 2,530%, also to 263 shares. Investment Research & Advisory Group added new shares valued at about 29,000 in the same period.
4. Dividend Profile and Valuation Metrics
Target has raised its dividend for 55 consecutive years, qualifying it as a Dividend King. Its current annualized payout translates to a yield of approximately 4.7%, supported by a payout ratio near 61% at midpoint of guidance. The company trades at about 13 times forward earnings, reflecting a valuation discount relative to peers. Analysts anticipate a return to positive comparable sales growth in 2026, underpinning potential upside from both capital appreciation and further dividend increases.