Target Q4 Earnings Preview: 1.5% Revenue Decline Expected, $25.27B Last Quarter
Target posted $25.27 billion in revenues last quarter, down 1.6% year-on-year, while full-year EPS guidance topped forecasts but EBITDA missed consensus. Analysts project a 1.5% revenue decline for Q4 versus a 3.1% drop last year, with estimates unchanged and shares trading roughly 6% above average price targets.
1. Last Quarter Performance
Target reported $25.27 billion in revenues last quarter, down 1.6% year-on-year. While full-year EPS guidance topped forecasts, EBITDA missed consensus estimates.
2. Q4 Revenue Outlook
The market expects Q4 revenues to decline 1.5% year-on-year, improving from a 3.1% drop in the same quarter a year earlier. Analysts have largely maintained their estimates over the past month, signaling steady sentiment ahead of results.
3. Peer Comparisons
Walmart recorded a 5.6% revenue increase in Q4 and Sprouts delivered 7.6% growth, both in line with consensus. Walmart’s shares fell 2.9% post-release while Sprouts’s stock remained flat.
4. Valuation and Risks
Target shares trade roughly 6% above the average analyst price target of $107.28, while the non-discretionary retail group is down 2.5% on average over the past month. Potential trade policy shifts and corporate tax discussions loom over the 2025 outlook.