Tarsus Q4 Revenue $151.7M Beats Estimates; Price Targets Raised to $105, $90
Oppenheimer and Guggenheim raised price targets on Tarsus to $105 and $90, respectively, after Q4 revenue topped estimates at $151.7M versus consensus $144.6M. Management issued FY26 XDEMVY sales guidance of $670M–$700M, forecasting more than $2B in peak U.S. sales on expanding payer coverage and patient demand.
1. Price Target Revisions
Oppenheimer raised its price target on Tarsus to $105 from $95 and maintained an Outperform rating following better-than-expected quarterly results. Guggenheim also lifted its target to $90 from $87 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing strong 2025 performance and robust 2026 sales outlook.
2. Q4 Financial Performance
Tarsus reported Q4 EPS of $(0.20) versus a consensus of $(0.13) and revenue of $151.67M compared with $144.56M expected, driven by XDEMVY uptake. CEO Bobak Azamian highlighted that XDEMVY has created a fundamental shift in eye care, achieving broad access and a growing franchise within two years of launch.
3. FY26 XDEMVY Sales Guidance
Management issued first-time FY26 net product sales guidance of $670M–$700M for XDEMVY, representing a $230M year-over-year increase. Growth is attributed to new patient demand, expanded payer coverage, and effective direct-to-consumer marketing efforts.
4. Growth Outlook and Pipeline Plans
Analysts project XDEMVY to exceed $2B in peak U.S. sales based on current uptake trends. Tarsus plans to apply its integrated commercial and scientific model to pipeline candidates in ocular rosacea and Lyme disease prevention.