TD Cowen Cuts Microsoft Target to $625, Sees Azure Growth Constrained by Capacity
TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood reaffirmed a Buy on Microsoft while cutting the price target to $625 from $655 ahead of its January 28 Q2 report, implying ~40% upside from the $452 share price. Wood sees stable GPU/CPU demand and potential 2 percentage-point Azure growth lift offset by capacity constraints.
1. Microsoft vs Amazon: 2026 AI Investment Choice
In a January 18 video discussion, Microsoft and Amazon were compared as the two leading pure-play investment options in artificial intelligence for 2026. Following after-market moves on January 16, Amazon shares gained 3.57% while Microsoft shares rose 1.05%, reflecting investor confidence in both hyperscalers. The analysis highlighted Microsoft’s dominant position in cloud AI workloads—its Azure platform grew 40% year-over-year in the most recent quarter—and underscored Amazon’s continued leadership in retail-AI integration and its stake in Anthropic. With Microsoft having announced an $80 billion data center spend for AI capacity build-out and Amazon expanding its AI-powered logistics network to over 150 fulfillment centers, the choice between the two hinges on whether investors favor Microsoft’s enterprise and cloud software ecosystem or Amazon’s consumer-focused AI deployments and broader e-commerce scale.
2. AI-Powered Early Detection Partnership
On January 20, Bristol Myers Squibb and Microsoft announced a partnership to deploy FDA-cleared radiology AI algorithms through Microsoft’s Precision Imaging Network, now used by more than 80% of U.S. hospitals. The collaboration targets lung cancer, which accounts for roughly 125,000 deaths and 227,000 new diagnoses annually in the U.S. By integrating AI models that automatically analyze X-ray and CT scans to surface hard-to-detect lung nodules, the workflow aims to flag patients earlier in the disease cycle and reduce radiologist workload by up to 30%. A core objective is to expand access in medically underserved and rural communities, where over half of incidental lung findings currently go untracked, by leveraging built-in follow-up tracking tools designed to ensure guideline-concordant screening and care pathways for patients with potential non-small cell lung cancer.
3. Analyst Reaffirms Positive Outlook with Revised Target
TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood maintained a Buy rating on Microsoft ahead of its fiscal Q2 earnings report due January 28, while trimming the 12-month price target from $655 to $625 to reflect near-term capacity constraints. Wood’s channel checks indicate stable to strengthening demand for GPU and CPU infrastructure in AI workloads, supporting an expected two-percentage-point uplift in Azure constant-currency growth versus current consensus—albeit partially offset by server supply bottlenecks. At current levels, the revised target implies nearly 40% upside. Cowen highlights that once data center build-out catches up with demand in the second half of 2026, Azure growth could reaccelerate, reinforcing Microsoft’s long-term positioning as AI adoption scales across enterprise, cloud and productivity software segments.