TD Cowen Downgrades Novo Nordisk, Cites DKK20B Wegovy Forecast, 2031 LOE Risk
TD Cowen downgraded Novo Nordisk to Hold, warning semaglutide’s LOE in 2031–32 will overshadow pipeline gains despite a DKK20B Wegovy Pill sales forecast for 2026. The bank cited failed CagriSema trials, lagging Ozempic prescriptions and potential competition from rival oral GLP-1 therapies.
1. Downgrade to Hold
TD Cowen downgraded Novo Nordisk from Buy to Hold and cut its price target to $42, citing the need for greater clarity on the company’s trajectory once semaglutide’s exclusivity ends.
2. Semaglutide LOE and Sales Forecast
Semaglutide is slated for generic entry in major markets in 2031–32, and while TD Cowen raised its Wegovy Pill sales forecast to DKK20 billion for 2026 and DKK55 billion by 2030, it warned these gains may not plug the revenue gap.
3. Pipeline Challenges and Competition
The bank pointed to failed or underwhelming CagriSema trial results, lagging Ozempic prescriptions and the threat from rival oral GLP-1 therapies like Lilly’s orforglipron as key factors undermining pipeline visibility.