TD Cowen Raises Carlyle Price Target to $67, Projects $6 Earnings and $200B Capital
TD Cowen raised Carlyle’s price target to $67 from $65 and kept a Buy rating after its investor day, highlighting a strategic reset and path to over $6 distributable earnings by 2028. The firm aims to raise $200 billion in new capital by end-2028, boosting fee-related earnings to $1.9 billion.
1. Analyst Upgrade and Strategic Reset
TD Cowen raised Carlyle’s price target from $65 to $67 and reiterated a Buy rating after attending the company’s investor day. The analyst highlighted that the firm’s recent restructuring has positioned it for a new growth cycle and improved execution.
2. Distributable Earnings Outlook
Carlyle targets more than $6 in distributable earnings per share by 2028, which TD Cowen deems both achievable and conservative based on current business plans and capital deployment strategies.
3. $200 Billion Capital Raising Plan
The firm is targeting $200 billion in new capital by end-2028, up from $158 billion raised over 2023–2025. Plans call for $90 billion from credit strategies, $60 billion from AlpInvest secondaries and $50 billion from private equity.
4. Fee-Related Earnings Growth
Carlyle expects fee-related earnings to grow from $1.2 billion in 2025 to $1.9 billion by 2028, underpinning stable income streams and reflecting expansion of its asset management platform.