Ten-year yields set for biggest weekly loss in more than a year
TLT•U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were on track for their biggest weekly decline in more than a year, despite a volatile session. Traders priced an 83% chance the Federal Reserve would hold rates in October and an 88% chance of a hike in December.
1. Yields fall for the week
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 5.087% on Friday after trading as high as 5.1334%. It had swung between 5.329% on Wednesday and 5.037% on Thursday, and remained on track for its biggest weekly decline since the week ended August 1, 2025.
2. Data and rate expectations
U.S. industrial output rose 0.7% in September, compared with economists’ 0.4% forecast. Export prices rose 2.2%, above the 1% consensus expectation, while import prices also increased more than expected. Traders priced an 83% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting and an 88% chance of a December hike.
