Ternium Delivers $250m Savings, Holds 10% Margin, Sees Q1 EBITDA Uptick
Ternium’s Q4 adjusted EBITDA dipped slightly as shipments fell seasonally, while cost and efficiency measures generated $250m in 2025, supporting a 10% margin. Management forecasts higher adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026 and margin expansion via new Mexican capacity, trade enforcement gains, and a $2.70 ADS dividend yielding over 6%.
1. Q4 Performance
In Q4 2025, Ternium’s adjusted EBITDA declined slightly sequentially as shipments fell seasonally in the U.S. and Brazil, partially offset by higher volumes in Mexico and the southern region. Net income reached $171m, with one-time charges related to an impairment at Lesa and favorable tax refunds impacting the quarter.
2. Cost Savings and Financial Results
The company’s cost reduction and efficiency initiatives delivered $250m in savings in 2025, supporting a 10% EBITDA margin. Cash from operations totaled $2.3bn for the year, while Q4 CapEx was $453m as investment at Pesquería ramped up; the board proposed a $2.70 per ADS dividend implying a yield over 6%.
3. 2026 Outlook and Trade Dynamics
Management expects sequentially higher adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026 and targets a 15% EBITDA margin by year-end, driven by new cold-rolling, galvanizing and slab capacity in Mexico backed by a $1.25bn green loan. Recent trade measures — including Mexico’s 25%–35% steel tariffs and U.S. anti-dumping actions — are reshaping regional demand, with Mexican consumption down ~10% in 2025 but projected to grow.