Tesla Bull Projects $3,640 Per Share, 796% Upside, Cautions 40% Merger Stake
TSLA•Prominent Tesla investor Brad Ferguson values Tesla at $3,640 per share, projecting a 796% upside driven by $957 per share from Robotaxi scaling next summer and $2,647 per share from Optimus scaling in 2027. He warns shareholders would hold only about 40% of a combined Tesla-SpaceX entity if a near-term merger occurs.
1. Bull's Valuation Thesis
Brad Ferguson of Rebellionaire argues Tesla stock should trade at $3,640 per share, highlighting a potential 796% gain over current levels and urging shareholders to hold for growth in core businesses before any merger.
2. Robotaxi and Optimus Growth Drivers
His valuation model attributes $957 per share to the Robotaxi business, which he expects to scale by next summer, and $2,647 per share to Optimus humanoid robots, projected to scale by the following year.
3. Merger Ownership Concerns
Ferguson cautions that a near-term Tesla-SpaceX merger would reduce Tesla shareholder ownership from 90% in 2021 to about 40% today, suggesting investors would sacrifice substantial upside prematurely.
