Tesla December China Deliveries Up 12.1% But Post 7.1% Annual Sales Decline
Tesla’s China wholesale vehicle deliveries rose 12.1% month-over-month to 97,171 units in December but full-year 2025 sales fell 7.1% to 851,732 units, marking its first annual Chinese market decline. Tesla shares also tumbled 4% after Nvidia unveiled Alpamayo AI model for autonomous driving at CES, heightening competition in self-driving technology.
1. EV Deliveries Fall but Robotaxi Ambitions Drive Investor Focus
Tesla reported 418,227 electric vehicle deliveries in Q4 2025, a 16% year-over-year decline and roughly 2% below analyst expectations of 426,000 units. Full-year deliveries totaled 1.64 million vehicles, down about 9% from 2024. The Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 97% of Q4 volume, while Model S, Model X and Cybertruck output remained minimal. Despite this softening, market attention has shifted to Tesla’s emerging robotaxi fleet and Optimus humanoid robots. Soft launches in Austin and San Francisco now include unsupervised trips, and management plans expansion into five additional cities by mid-2026. Wedbush projects robotaxis operating in 30 cities by year-end, and Ark Invest estimates the autonomous-vehicle business could represent 90% of enterprise value by 2029.
2. Two Trading Strategies Ahead of January Earnings
Since hitting all-time highs before Christmas, Tesla has slid over 12% into January, its longest losing streak in months. Technical indicators have turned bearish—MACD recently produced a negative crossover and RSI sits in oversold territory—yet the long-term ascending support line from mid-2025 remains intact. Bulls can ‘buy the dip,’ citing New Street Research’s reiterated Buy rating and raised $600 target, which implies roughly 40% upside if momentum reverses. Conversely, cautious investors may wait for the January earnings release to see if Tesla can stabilize deliveries, defend support levels, and address slowing demand in China and Europe before committing new capital.
3. China Sales Rebound Highlights Competitive Pressures
December 2025 wholesale sales in China reached 97,171 units, a 12.1% increase from November and the market’s second-highest monthly figure on record. Retail volume stood at 73,145 units, with 13,555 exported abroad. Yet full-year wholesale deliveries in China fell 7.1% to 851,732 units, marking Tesla’s first annual sales decline in that market. Management attributes the drop to Shanghai factory changeovers for the new Model Y and intensifying competition from local brands. BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest fully electric vehicle seller in 2025, underscoring the need for Tesla to sustain production improvements and secure market share to support its global growth trajectory.