In the week leading up to January 28, Tesla shares slid into negative territory as market participants reduced exposure ahead of the automaker’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. Analysts point to lofty expectations for margins in the coming year, driven by the launch of Tesla’s robotaxi program, as a key factor in the pre-report profit-taking. With Wall Street consensus anticipating year-over-year revenue growth of roughly 20% in 2026, even a modest miss on vehicle deliveries or gross margins could trigger further volatility in the stock.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has given Tesla an additional five weeks to respond to inquiries concerning potential traffic-law violations tied to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta system. The extension, announced in mid-January, reflects the complexity of the agency’s investigation into whether FSD engaged in unauthorized maneuvers on public roads. Investors will be watching Tesla’s formal comments closely, as any admission of systemic issues or required software changes could affect production schedules and capital expenditures for driver-assist development.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood reiterated her bullish stance on Tesla’s long-term margin improvement driven by autonomous taxi deployment. In a recent interview, Wood projected that robotaxi services could contribute up to 25 percentage points of incremental gross margin by the end of the decade, citing software-as-a-service economics and the potential for daily utilization rates above 60%. Wood also noted Tesla’s investment in AI training clusters and advanced sensor packages as catalysts for accelerating regulatory approval and network rollout in major metropolitan areas.

Prominent early-stage backer Jason Calacanis declared Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, a contender to eclipse automotive revenue in the next decade. Speaking at a technology conference, Calacanis forecasted that Optimus could generate over $10 billion in annual sales by 2030, based on unit economics of less than $20,000 per robot and a target of 500,000 units sold. He argued this segment would diversify Tesla’s business model, reduce reliance on cyclical vehicle markets and position the company at the forefront of industrial and service robotics.