Tesla Plans $20B 2026 Capex After Q4 Revenue Dips 3%

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Tesla reported Q4 2025 total revenue of $24.901 billion, down 3% year-on-year, with automotive segment revenue plunging 11% to $17.693 billion while adjusted EPS fell 17% to $0.50 despite beating estimates. The company unveiled a $20 billion capex plan for 2026 targeting AI compute, robotaxis and Optimus production.

1. Tesla Launches Budget-Friendly Model Y Variant in U.S.

Tesla has added a new rear-wheel-drive variant of its Model Y crossover to its U.S. lineup, listing it at a base price of $41,990 on the company’s website. The new version offers a single electric motor producing approximately 230 kW of power and an EPA-estimated range of 280 miles. By undercutting its previous entry-level Model Y by roughly $5,000, Tesla aims to capture price-sensitive buyers and fend off competition from lower-priced Chinese imports. Production will begin in April at Gigafactory Nevada, with deliveries targeted for early May.

2. Q4 2025 Earnings Reveal Revenue Slide and EPS Beat

In Q4 2025, Tesla reported total revenue of $24.9 billion, down 3% year-over-year and missing the consensus estimate of $25.1 billion. The automotive division was the main drag, with vehicle sales revenue falling 11% to $17.7 billion. Energy generation and storage revenue grew 25%, while services and other segments rose 18%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.50, beating Wall Street’s $0.45 estimate but representing a 17% decline from the prior year’s quarter. CEO Elon Musk emphasized that rising investments in AI compute and robotics weighed on margins.

3. Tesla Unveils Ambitious $20 Billion CapEx Blueprint for 2026

Tesla outlined plans to allocate over $20 billion in capital expenditures this year, the highest level in company history. Key allocations include expansion of AI training infrastructure at Gigafactory Texas—doubling H100-equivalent compute capacity—development of the Gen 3 Optimus humanoid robot, and targeted upgrades to support Robotaxi deployment. Factory capacity ramps in Shanghai and Berlin will also receive funding to boost annual vehicle output by 25%. The capex surge signals a strategic pivot toward AI-driven services and automation beyond core EV manufacturing.

4. Mixed Global Sales Trends: European Declines and Italian Rebound

Tesla’s global delivery figures showed contrasting regional patterns in January. In Europe, new-vehicle registrations fell sharply in France and Norway, contributing to a 15% drop across four major markets compared to January 2025. Conversely, Italy reported a 75% year-on-year jump in Tesla registrations following an 18% decline over the full year 2025, according to data from the Italian transport ministry. The disparity highlights the growing impact of local EV incentives and intensifying rivalry from domestic manufacturers in different markets.

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