Tesla Q1 Global Deliveries Seen at 364,645 Vehicles, 9% Rise
Tesla is projected to deliver 364,645 vehicles globally in Q1, up 9% year-on-year but growth is marginal after Model Y rollout issues and U.S. tax-credit loss. The EV maker posted two years of declining deliveries from a 1.81 million peak in 2023, with analysts forecasting 1.69 million for 2026.
1. Q1 Delivery Outlook
Tesla expects 364,645 global Q1 deliveries, roughly 9% higher year-on-year but only marginal improvement after Model Y production transition and end of the U.S. federal EV tax credit. The company’s self-published consensus mirrors Wall Street estimates at 364,645 units.
2. Regional Sales Trends
U.S. deliveries declined following the Q3 loss of the federal EV credit, sliding from 497,000 in Q3 2025 to 418,000 in Q4. European sales rebounded modestly in February, ending a multi-month slump, while Asian markets face stiff competition from lower-priced domestic EV makers.
3. Historical Delivery Trends and Outlook
After peaking at 1.81 million vehicles in 2023, Tesla deliveries fell to 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.64 million in 2025. Analysts project a slight recovery to 1.69 million for 2026, a figure to be confirmed with official numbers.