Tesla Q2 Deliveries Forecast at 396,500–420,000 Units as Retail Trading Dips
TSLA•Retail investors accounted for just 10% of Tesla trading last week, the lowest level since 2022 as Magnificent Seven retail volume fell to 6%. Wall Street delivery forecasts range from 396,500 to 420,000 vehicles for Q2, while Tesla aims to begin Optimus robot production in July.
1. Retail Trading Trends
Retail participation in Tesla shares dropped to 10% of total volume last week, marking the lowest retail interest since 2022. This decline follows a broader Magnificent Seven pullback, where retail trading fell to 6% of total market activity over the past five days.
2. Q2 Delivery Forecasts
Analysts’ estimates for second-quarter Tesla vehicle deliveries range from 396,500 to 420,000 units, with a consensus of around 406,000. First-quarter production reached 408,386 vehicles against 358,023 deliveries, leaving roughly 50,000 units in the delivery pipeline and implying 5.7% year-over-year growth.
3. Optimus Robot Production
Tesla plans to begin manufacturing its Optimus humanoid robots in July, targeting a market entry for next-generation units later this year. This robotics initiative joins EV deliveries and margin improvements as key catalysts for Tesla’s upcoming performance.
