Tesla Q2 Delivery Forecast of 397k–408k Units as Europe Booms
TSLA•Tesla projects 397,000–408,600 Q2 deliveries, implying an 11% sequential rise and a 3% year-over-year gain over last year’s 384,000 units. US deliveries are expected to drop about 20% after federal EV credit expiry, while Europe registrations surged over 108% year-over-year.
1. Q2 Delivery Expectations
Tesla heads into its Q2 report with delivery forecasts ranging from 397,000 to 408,600 vehicles, implying an 11% increase sequentially and a 3% rise year-on-year over last year’s 384,000 deliveries.
2. Geographic Delivery Trends
US deliveries are projected to fall about 20% after federal EV tax credits expired, while European registrations soared 108% year-on-year in May and 57% year-to-date, buoyed by strong EV adoption.
3. Regional Growth Forecasts
Analysts expect the largest year-over-year growth in Europe at nearly 40%, followed by China at 3%, with North America down 21% year-on-year but up 7% sequentially from Q1.
4. Stock Reaction and FSD Update
Tesla shares jumped over 8% on Monday as investors reacted to the rollout of a new Full Self-Driving software update, offsetting flat quarterly performance and an 8% year-to-date stock decline.
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