Tesla Raises Energy Storage Forecasts by 2%-3% as Merger Odds Hit 80%-90%
TSLA•Tesla’s stationary storage sales forecasts rose by 2% for 2026 and by 3% for both 2027 and 2028 after Oppenheimer raised its projections, while vehicle sales forecasts climbed 4% across 2026–2028. Wedbush’s Dan Ives assigns an 80%–90% probability of a Tesla–SpaceX merger in 2027 once SpaceX begins trading.
1. Oppenheimer Forecast Revisions
Oppenheimer analysts raised Tesla’s stationary storage sales forecasts by 2% for 2026 and by 3% for 2027 and 2028, while lifting vehicle sales forecasts by 4% across 2026–2028. The adjustments reflect expectations of supply chain synergies and elevated oil prices improving EV cost competitiveness.
2. Cautious on Near-Term Merger
Despite acknowledging a merger as plausible, Oppenheimer does not anticipate one in the near term, arguing that separate public listings provide diversified capital access and better support Elon Musk’s long-term AI ambitions.
3. Wedbush’s Bullish Merger Probability
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives sees an 80%–90% chance of a Tesla–SpaceX merger in 2027 following SpaceX’s IPO, describing such a combination as the “holy grail” for integrating Musk’s broader AI ecosystem under one public entity.
4. Emerging Operational Synergies
Analysts point to growing collaborations, including energy storage support for SpaceX data centers and the joint Terafab facility in Austin, as evidence that Tesla and SpaceX are laying groundwork for deeper integration ahead of any formal transaction.
