Tesla-SpaceX deal: Wall Street says inevitable but Musk says it's not certain
SPCX•Elon Musk said a Tesla-SpaceX merger is not certain, with two special committees yet to agree on terms and Tesla shareholder approval posing a hurdle. Analysts say a deal could happen by the end of next year, but Tesla needs a majority of all shares for approval.
1. Terms remain unsettled
Musk said he sees “a lot of merit” in combining Tesla and SpaceX, but said the two special committees have yet to agree on terms and a merger is not certain. Analysts expect a deal by the end of next year. SpaceX shares were up 9% and Tesla shares gained 1% in premarket trading.
2. Shareholder vote is key
Musk said Tesla needs a majority of all shares for approval, meaning uncast ballots count against a deal. Analysts have flagged low turnout and uncast broker votes as potential risks. No exchange ratio has been negotiated; analysts’ illustrative estimates suggest a merger could give Musk about 57% to 58% of voting rights.
3. Business case and oversight
Tesla and SpaceX are jointly developing the Terafab chip plant, while AI accounts for more than half of SpaceX revenue. The article says SpaceX may spend another $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter to fund expansion. Analysts cited potential shared services and borrowing, while also raising governance and regulatory questions.
