Tesla shares have fallen more than 12% from their December highs as the company heads into its end-of-January earnings report. On one side, bulls point to a deeply oversold technical setup—its MACD just printed a bearish crossover, while the RSI sits in oversold territory—and a repriced valuation that trims the price-to-earnings multiple back toward historical norms. New Street Research has reiterated a Buy rating and raised its 12-month target to imply roughly 40% potential upside. On the other side, bears argue that weakening momentum and rising competition warrant caution. They advocate waiting for the company’s quarterly results to confirm whether Tesla can defend its long-term rising support line and reassure investors on demand, margins and execution, rather than committing fresh capital beforehand.

Despite a nearly 16% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, investors have shifted their attention toward Tesla’s autonomous vehicle and robotics ambitions. The company has soft-launched its robotaxi service in Austin and San Francisco, with supervision gradually being removed from certain vehicles in recent weeks. Wedbush Securities forecasts Tesla’s robotaxi fleet operating in 30 U.S. cities by the end of next year, which could add substantial enterprise value. Meanwhile, the Optimus humanoid program—now poised for wider-scale production—remains a wildcard. Ark Invest projects that by 2029, robotaxis and Optimus together could account for as much as 90% of Tesla’s earnings power, underpinning lofty long-term price targets despite near-term vehicle headwinds.

Tesla’s wholesale shipments from its Shanghai factory rebounded to 97,171 vehicles in December, up 12.1% from November and marking the second-highest monthly total on record. However, full-year 2025 China wholesale volumes fell 7.1% to 851,732 units amid a factory changeover for the new Model Y and intensifying local competition. Domestic China sales of 531,855 units lagged the prior year’s 657,105 tally, delivering Tesla’s first annual sales decline in its largest market. While December’s sequential gain offers a glimmer of stabilization, the year-long downturn underscores the challenges Tesla faces in balancing production transitions with sustaining growth in a fiercely contested region.