Tesla is required to submit detailed crash data related to its Full Self-Driving software to the NHTSA by March 9 as part of an active safety probe. The data disclosure will cover incidents logged by Tesla vehicles operating in FSD mode and form the basis for the agency’s assessment of the system’s real-world safety performance.

Tesla’s current valuation hinges on the promise of full autonomy, underpinning a 290–300 times forward earnings multiple. A favorable crash data report could reinforce this growth thesis, while findings that reveal higher incident rates could trigger a sharp re-evaluation of Tesla’s premium multiple.

The company’s EV deliveries have fallen for the second consecutive year, reflecting softening demand in key markets. At the same time, reported automotive gross margins have narrowed as production costs rise and pricing flexibility tightens, squeezing profitability.

In addition to the NHTSA data release, Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report may introduce macro-driven volatility during a period already fraught with regulatory uncertainty. These overlapping events could amplify short-term trading swings and heighten risk for holders of Tesla shares.