The Americas’ oil bonanza will outlast the Iran conflict: Bousso

This shift in global energy trade patterns was made possible by the remarkable growth in oil and gas production across the Americas over the past decade. The expansion was driven first and foremost by the U.S. shale revolution, which transformed global oil markets and made the U.S. the world's largest producer in 2018, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. production reached an all-time high of 21 million bpd in 2025, accounting for about a fifth of global output, according to the International Energy Agency. Elsewhere, production growth has also been substantial. Brazil is on track to raise output to a record 4.3 million bpd in 2026, up 480,000 bpd from last year, according to the IEA, driven by giant offshore fields such as Buzios and Bacalhau. Meanwhile, Canada continues to expand oil-sands capacity. Guyana is rapidly becoming one of the world's fastest-growing producers, while Argentina is steadily increasing output from the Vaca Muerta shale basin, one of the largest unconventional resources outside North America. Taken together, North American oil production is expected to average 30.5 million bpd in 2027, while Latin American output is projected to hit 9.3 million bpd. That would represent a 50% gain for the region over the past decade, according to IEA data. The region, particularly North America, has spent years building production capacity, export terminals, pipelines and shipping infrastructure. In many respects, the Middle East crisis could not have come at a better time for its oil producers. Crude exports from the region, stretching from Canada in the north to Argentina in the south, have risen to a record-high average of 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in 2026, up from 10.3 million bpd in 2025, and nearly double the volume a decade ago, according to Kpler data. The U.S. leads the pack with exports averaging 4.4 million bpd this year, followed by Brazil at 2.5 million bpd. Asia has absorbed much of the additional crude from the Americas. Imports into the continent from the Western Hemisphere have surged since the Iran war began and are on track to reach a record 5.4 million bpd in August, compared with an average of 4 million bpd in 2025. This diversification was born of necessity, not design. But the shock has exposed the risks of overdependence on Middle Eastern supplies. Given Asia's wartime scars, the lesson may linger. Even if Gulf exports eventually recover, Asian importers will likely want to avoid becoming too reliant again on any single region – especially one with vulnerable maritime chokepoints and a high risk of conflict. Sourcing a larger share of crude from the Western Hemisphere is more expensive because Gulf crude retains a geographic advantage. But that cost may increasingly be seen as an insurance premium against future geopolitical disruption. The Hormuz crisis has created a rare opportunity for these suppliers. The Americas now account for roughly 30% of global seaborne crude exports, up from 23% last year, with Asian buyers driving much of that shift. Producers in the Americas will not entirely replace Middle Eastern suppliers in Asia, but could continue to erode the Gulf's hold on the market. For decades, proximity made Middle Eastern oil the natural choice for Asia's importers. A tanker sailing from Brazil to Japan can spend up to 60 days at sea, about triple the transit time from the Gulf. These longer voyages tie up fleets, raising freight demand and shipping costs. Consequently, tanker rates have surged as more crude takes the long route to Asia. Rates for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2 million barrels have hit a record high of around $640,000 per day — more than triple their pre-war levels, according to LSEG data. Asian refiners are currently willing to accept significantly higher transport costs in exchange for greater energy security. In an increasingly volatile world, reliability may continue to matter as much as distance. The Americas also offer something else that few producing regions can match: a wide diversity of crude grades. Looking for light, sweet U.S. shale crude or Canadian heavy, sour oil-sands barrels? They are available. Want medium, sweet grades from offshore Brazil or Guyana, or light, sweet Argentine shale oil? Those are increasingly abundant. To be sure, the Americas cannot fully replace the Middle East, which boasts far larger reserves and far lower production costs. Still, what began as a temporary response to the Iran war increasingly looks like a lasting realignment of global oil trade — one that could persist long after the missiles stop flying in the Gulf. From Canada to Argentina, oil producers across the Americas have enjoyed a windfall during the Iran war by capturing market share lost by Middle Eastern exporters. The renewed focus on energy security globally could transform this emergency response into a lasting structural change. Oil production in the Americas has become a viable alternative to the Middle East's vast hydrocarbon resources since the outbreak of the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz six months ago, which disrupted roughly a fifth of global oil supplies. The shift is one of the most striking changes in the global energy landscape in decades. The Hormuz closure immediately triggered a scramble to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels, with the Americas emerging as the primary beneficiary.

The Americas’ oil bonanza will outlast the Iran conflict: Bousso

Production growth across the Americas

Exports and Asia demand hit record levels

Higher shipping costs, but a longer-term realignment

Americas oil producers benefit from Middle East disruption

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