The capex boom, minus AI
SPY•AI drives much of the global capex boom
Nobody will be surprised to learn that artificial intelligence is driving much of today's global investment boom — what's interesting is just how much of it.
BofA Global Research crunched the numbers and found that, excluding spending by U.S. hyperscalers and a handful of semiconductor companies, global capital spending growth would look more like a conventional investment cycle.
Excluding the AI spenders, BofA sees global capex growth of 6% in both 2026 and 2027, slowing to just 1% in 2028. Include them, and the figures jump to 29%, 22% and 6%, respectively.
"Non-AI related growth remains in line with history at best," analysts at the bank write.
Regional capex outlook points to Americas-led growth
The regional breakdown tells a similar story.
The Americas are forecast to post capex growth of 44% in 2026, while Asia Pacific is expected to grow by 13%. In EMEA, where exposure to data-centre investment is lower and the chip industry is smaller, growth is seen at just 6%.
