The Trade Desk Downgraded After 18% Surge; OpenAI Deal Seen Yielding $42M EBITDA
Wedbush cut The Trade Desk’s rating from Neutral to Underperform after shares surged 18% on OpenAI partnership reports, arguing the deal warrants only $42 million incremental EBITDA in 2027. The analyst projects $31–77 million in 2026 revenue and just 1–4% of TTD’s base, maintaining a $23 target.
1. Wedbush Downgrade and Rationale
Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese cut the rating from Neutral to Underperform after The Trade Desk’s shares jumped roughly 18% on reports of a partnership with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The firm argued that the current share price reflects a narrative-driven “headline pop” rather than the actual near-term economic benefit of the deal.
2. Projected Financial Impact
Wedbush projects only $42 million of incremental EBITDA from the OpenAI integration in 2027, implying a roughly 53x EBITDA multiple based on the stock’s recent value. Revenue contributions are expected between $31 million and $77 million in 2026 and $56 million to $140 million in 2027, representing just 1–4% of The Trade Desk’s projected revenue base.
3. Strategic Risks and Price Target
The analyst warned of longer-term structural risks if OpenAI develops its own in-house DSP, which could disintermediate The Trade Desk’s platform. Despite the downgrade and modest near-term benefits, Wedbush maintained a price target of $23 per share.