Just how much crude oil is leaving the Strait of Hormuz?
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims almost nine million barrels per day, but the companies that track vessel movements say at best it is about half this volume.
The amount of crude leaving the Middle East via the narrow chokepoint matters, as it's this oil that goes to Asia, the top energy-consuming region that has been hardest hit by the fallout since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Wright said on social media platform X on August 12 that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd."
He further said that adding in an "additional 5-7 million bpd leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million bpd."
This would take total exports from the Middle East to around 75% of the volumes prior to the start of the conflict, and if Wright's numbers are accurate it would mean that the oil market is not nearly as tight as most analysts believe.
The problem is that Wright's numbers don't tally with those provided by several vessel tracking services.
Wright didn't specify the exact time period for his seven-day average, but data from commodity analysts Kpler shows crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz for the week beginning July 27 at 2.77 million bpd.
This drops to 1.74 million bpd for the week beginning August 3, and even the best week since the start of the conflict saw only 6.98 million bpd leave in the seven days starting June 29.
What of total exports from the Middle East? This would include cargoes leaving from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port in the Red Sea, as well as shipments from Oman and the Fujairah facility in the United Arab Emirates.
Kpler data shows crude shipments of 9.53 million bpd in the week beginning August 3, and a four-week average of 12.26 million bpd.
Data from LSEG Oil Research, filtered to show only cargoes that are being loaded, have been loaded, are underway or have been discharged, shows Middle East crude exports of 9.33 million bpd for the first 12 days of August, down from 12.35 million bpd in July.
What the tracking data shows is that total exports from the Middle East are still well below pre-conflict levels, with Kpler data showing shipments of 18.7 million bpd in the three months until the end of February.
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