The Week in Breakingviews: When fund managers fret

You might expect most money managers to be skipping to work these days. As stock markets across the developed world hit new all-time highs, the business of looking after other people’s wealth is buoyant. Yet spend any time with senior executives at large pension and sovereign wealth funds, and the mood is a mix of incredulity and foreboding. Much of what their funds own is expensive by historical standards. And a correction looks overdue.

Most of the time, these seasoned investment professionals keep their opinions to themselves, or couch them in technocratic jargon. Occasionally, though, someone speaks up. That’s what Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, did this week. In a striking speech, he asked his audience to consider the possibility that the $2 trillion fund could disappear: “The answer to that question is ‘yes’ – and the worst part is that in the world we live in today, it is fairly likely,” he declared.

To be clear, Tangen was not actually predicting the imminent incineration of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, which was set up three decades ago to manage the country’s oil wealth. On Wednesday it reported a healthy 9.4% return for the first half of 2026. His real message was that Norwegians should prepare themselves for the possibility that the vehicle which finances about a quarter of the government budget could hit leaner times. At the same time, he spelled out just how extraordinary its performance has been. In 2010, its managers projected equities would appreciate by 7% a year. In reality, the stock portfolio has returned twice that figure in local currency terms. The overall fund has more than doubled in value in the last four years. The factors behind this achievement? “Largely luck.”