Third Point Exits 300K Workday Shares as Analysts Slash Targets to $260–$320
Dan Loeb’s Third Point LLC fully exited its 300,000-share Workday stake in Q3 2025, its second full sale this year. Despite Q3 EPS of $2.32 and $2.43B revenue beats, analysts lowered targets to $320 from $340 and to $260 from $285, citing modest growth and below-consensus margin guidance.
1. Activist Investor Exits Workday Stake for Second Time in 2025
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Dan Loeb’s hedge fund Third Point LLC completed the liquidation of its remaining 300,000 shares of Workday, marking its second full exit from the software company this year after an earlier sale in Q1. This divestiture follows a broader trend of activist investors trimming technology positions in response to macroeconomic uncertainty and modest revenue growth trajectories. Third Point’s cumulative sales this year have represented a significant reduction in the fund’s exposure to Workday, signaling skepticism about the near-term upside potential despite the company’s recent operational achievements.
2. Q3 Earnings Beat but Growth and Margin Guidance Disappoint
Workday reported adjusted earnings of $2.32 per share and revenue of $2.43 billion for its third quarter, surpassing consensus estimates by $0.14 per share and $20 million in revenue. Subscription backlog expanded to $8.21 billion, up 17.6% year-over-year, buoyed in part by the Paradox acquisition. However, organic revenue growth fell short of analyst expectations and management reiterated full-year non-GAAP operating margin guidance at approximately 28.5%, below the consensus level of 28.7%. Investors were left cautious by the company’s decision not to raise margin targets despite the quarter’s outperformance, suggesting limited near-term leverage from cost synergies and AI investments.
3. Analysts Lower Price Targets on Modest Outlook and Competitive Pressures
Following the quarterly report, several Wall Street analysts trimmed their price targets: RBC Capital cut its target from $340 to $320 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing the modest organic growth and unchanged margin outlook. KeyBanc’s Overweight rating was upheld even as its target moved from $285 to $260, with the analyst noting that subscription and professional services revenue marginally exceeded consensus but offered limited upside for the fourth quarter. Additional commentary highlighted federal government deal delays during the recent shutdown and the dilutive impact of acquisitions on near-term operating margin, underscoring persistent competitive and execution risks.
4. Underperformance Relative to Cloud Computing Peers
Over the past twelve months, Workday shares have declined by approximately 21.4%, in contrast to a roughly 18.5% gain in a broad cloud technology ETF and a 7.7% decline in a cloud-focused benchmark. Peers such as Palantir Technologies have delivered triple-digit percentage growth, while legacy enterprise software providers have shown more resilience. Workday’s underperformance reflects investor concerns over slower subscription bookings, evolving AI integration costs, and pressure on operating margins, factors that may weigh on the stock until clearer evidence emerges of sustained margin expansion and robust pipeline conversion.