Threats to AI capex boom, geopolitical risks point to heightened risk environment into 2027
USO•Fitch said emerging threats to the AI capital expenditure boom, Middle East geopolitical risks and tighter funding point to a heightened risk environment into 2027. A material reassessment of long-term AI monetization prospects could reduce capex, while prolonged disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz beyond the first quarter of 2027 would lead to higher oil prices than Fitch's base case.
1. Risks into 2027
Fitch said emerging threats to the AI capex boom, Middle East geopolitical risks and tighter funding point to a heightened risk environment into 2027. A material reassessment of long-term AI monetization prospects could result in reduced capex, with implications across the AI value chain.
2. Oil supply scenario
Fitch said that if oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain hampered beyond the first quarter of 2027, a higher oil price scenario than its base case would materialize.
