Walmart Beats Q3 Estimates, Raises FY26 EPS Guidance to 2.58–2.63
Walmart reported Q3 EPS of $0.62 versus $0.60 consensus and revenue of $179.5 billion versus $175.2 billion, up 5.8%, with a 3.26% net margin. It set FY26 EPS guidance of 2.58–2.63 and had its price target raised from $130 to $135 by Tigress Financial.
1. Surge in Buy-Side Analyst Upgrades and Raised Targets
Over the past month, five major brokerages have revised their outlook on Walmart, with three firms upgrading their stance to “buy” or “overweight” and two maintaining positive outlooks while lifting price targets by an average of 4.5%. Collectively, these changes reflect growing confidence in Walmart’s ability to sustain mid-single-digit same-store sales growth through fiscal 2026 and maintain its 2.6 EPS guidance range. Notably, BTIG Research and DA Davidson both backed a more aggressive stance, underscoring expectations for incremental margin expansion driven by supply-chain efficiencies and higher private-label penetration.
2. Institutional Investors Increase Stakes in Third Quarter Filings
According to the latest 13F filings, CIBC Asset Management added 5,434 shares to its existing position, taking its total to 820,277 shares—an increase of 0.7%. Revolve Wealth Partners and Atlas Legacy Advisors each boosted their holdings by roughly 1%, now holding near 10,000 and 8,700 shares respectively. Overall, hedge funds and other institutional investors collectively own 26.8% of Walmart’s float, up from 26.2% at the prior quarter-end, signaling renewed confidence in the retailer’s long-term growth trajectory.
3. Q3 Earnings Outperform Consensus; FY26 Guidance Reaffirmed
In the third quarter, Walmart reported revenue of $179.5 billion, a 5.8% year-over-year increase, beating consensus estimates by $4.35 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.62, exceeding consensus by $0.02. Gross margin expanded to 23.9%, driven by improved inventory management and lower freight costs. Management reiterated full-year EPS guidance of $2.58–$2.63, implying mid-single-digit earnings growth despite ongoing investment in e-commerce infrastructure and wage inflation.
4. Insider Selling Raises Governance Questions
During January, CEO C. Douglas McMillon sold 19,416 shares and two executive vice presidents collectively sold 13,749 shares, reducing their combined holdings by approximately 0.2% of total insider ownership. While these dispositions generated $3.4 million in proceeds, they coincide with short-term stock weakness and have drawn commentary on the optics of insider confidence. Company filings indicate insider ownership remains above 3% of outstanding shares, but the recent sales represent the highest quarterly insider liquidations since mid-2025.