During a keynote address in Paris on Wednesday, TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné forecast that the European Union will eventually drop its nascent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate, mirroring last month’s decision to shelve its 2035 cutoff for new combustion-engine cars. Pouyanné highlighted that TotalEnergies has committed €500 million to ramp SAF production from its Grandpuits biorefinery—targeting 200 000 tonnes annually by 2024—but warned that shifting political priorities could curtail demand. He noted that EU member states spent over €3 billion on SAF subsidies in 2023, yet the bloc’s reliance on conventional jet kerosene, which still accounts for more than 95% of jet fuel consumption, presents a structural challenge. Investors will be watching whether the EU’s projected 63% CO₂ reduction target for aviation by 2050 will survive upcoming policy reversals.