TotalEnergies sees global oil demand plateau in 2030s under current trends
TTE•TotalEnergies’ 2026 Energy Outlook projects petroleum product demand will plateau in the 2030s under its Trends scenario, with global warming of 2.6°C–2.8°C by 2100. Its Rupture scenario projects warming of 1.8°C–1.9°C but appears out of reach.
1. Outlook scenarios
TotalEnergies published its 2026 Energy Outlook on November 2, projecting continued fossil fuel demand growth under current policies. In the Trends scenario, petroleum product demand plateaus in the 2030s and gas demand stabilizes in the 2040s.
2. Warming projections
The Trends scenario implies global warming of 2.6°C–2.8°C by 2100, with infrastructure constraints, geopolitical tensions and costs limiting low-carbon deployment. The Momentum scenario projects 2.3°C–2.4°C of warming, while the Rupture scenario projects 1.8°C–1.9°C; the company says Rupture appears out of reach given geopolitical rivalries and the need for stronger cooperation.
