TotalEnergies Shares Lag Crude Gains as BP Climbs 20%
Supermajors, including TotalEnergies, have failed to match the 45% rise in crude oil futures since February 28, with BP posting a 20% share gain and ExxonMobil down 2%. BP’s strategy reset last year to cut renewables and ramp up oil and gas production is expected to deliver an exceptional Q1 trading result.
1. Supermajor Performance Patterns
Since February 28, crude oil futures have surged by 45%, but none of the five major producers – including TotalEnergies – have matched this rally in their share prices. BP leads with a 20% gain while ExxonMobil has declined about 2%, highlighting diverging market responses to Middle East supply disruptions.
2. BP’s Strategic Pivot
Last year BP announced a strategy reset to slash renewable energy investments and boost oil and gas output after activist hedge funds pressed for debt reduction and share price recovery. That pivot has fueled its recent stock strength and positioned the company to capture elevated oil market margins directly.
3. Implications for TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies’ share performance has mirrored the industry average, trailing BP’s rally and underscoring the challenge of balancing hydrocarbon production with clean energy investments. To close the gap, TotalEnergies may need to adjust capital allocation toward higher-return oil and gas projects.
4. Q1 Trading Outlook
BP expects an “exceptional” oil trading result for the first quarter of 2026, reflecting strong profitability in volatile markets. TotalEnergies could similarly benefit from commodity trading gains if it leverages its trading infrastructure and risk management capabilities effectively.