Toyota Suppliers Face Iran Conflict Shortages, Denso Trims Profit Forecast 22%
Suppliers to Toyota warn that conflict-driven disruptions in Iran have squeezed deliveries of aluminum, resins and naphtha-based materials, threatening to halt vehicle production if even a single component fails to arrive. Denso cut its 2027 operating profit forecast to ¥500 billion from analysts’ ¥639 billion estimate, while Toyoda Gosei has built in a risk of 200,000 fewer vehicles produced this fiscal year due to paint thinner shortages expected by June.
1. Supply Chain Disruptions from Iran Conflict
Toyota’s network of parts suppliers is experiencing mounting delivery delays for key materials such as aluminum, resins and naphtha derivatives after the conflict in Iran triggered raw‐material bottlenecks. Smaller firms have indicated they may miss delivery deadlines within two weeks, creating unpredictable production choke points for assemblers.
2. Revised Profit Forecasts by Major Suppliers
Denso now anticipates operating profit of ¥500 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2027, down from analysts’ consensus of ¥639 billion, and has allocated a ¥45 billion hit to cope with material uncertainty. Toyoda Gosei maintained its ¥80 billion outlook but warned that shortages of paint thinners could shave production by 200,000 vehicles compared with customer plans.
3. Raw Material Risks and Mitigation Efforts
Executives highlighted that a shortage of thinners used in automotive paint could emerge as early as June, preventing vehicle finishing and triggering industry‐wide shutdowns. Suppliers such as Toyota Boshoku are negotiating short‐term supply guarantees and exploring alternative materials for resins and organic solvents to avoid production halts.